Point Blank: Mike Sullivan shouldn't be back as Penguins' head coach next season

Mike Sullivan — Photo via GETTY

The head coach who deployed Patric Hornqvist with fourth-line minutes in Game 6 of the 2017 Stanley Cup Final has been missing for quite some time.

The Penguins haven’t won a postseason series since 2018. By no stretch of the imagination does that fall squarely on Mike Sullivan.

No one’s blaming Sullivan for not winning the Stanley Cup three seasons in a row. It’s not his fault Tristan Jarry imploded against the Islanders in 2021, nor is it his fault that Louis Domingue performed exactly as one would expect an AHL goalie to perform against the Rangers in 2022.

But the fact remains that the Penguins have gone 6-15 over their last 24 postseason games. Excuses eventually run thin and, regardless of the circumstances, Sullivan has to bear some responsibility for those results.

How could he not?

The fact also remains that Sullivan and the Penguins are currently on the fast track to missing the postseason for a second year in a row despite Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin not missing a single game during that time.

All Sullivan’s fault? Hardly.

Outside of rightfully keeping the core intact (if for no other reason than Malkin and Kris Letang being miles better than the alternative options), Ron Hextall’s time as general manager of the Penguins usually ranged from uninspiring to downright disastrous.

Had Hextall operated with some sort of cohesive plan and not flown by the seat of his pants in 2022-23 — or even constructed a decent bottom six up front — the Penguins probably would have made the postseason.

Nevertheless, he was deservedly canned at season’s end in favor of Kyle Dubas, who has somehow constructed a worse roster than anything Hextall put together during his time with the Penguins.

Dubas’ acquisition of Erik Karlsson was a masterclass in dealing a bunch of underperforming players and poor contracts for a legitimate star. He took a gamble by re-signing Tristan Jarry, which has panned out to this point.

Just about everything else Dubas did in his first offseason at the helm, though? It’s fallen on its face.

Some of it, like Lars Eller not producing frequently enough for a third-line center or Ryan Graves not being some defensive stalwart, was predictable the moment Dubas signed them.

Reilly Smith looking like a shell of the 26-goal guy who won a Stanley Cup with the Golden Knights a season ago? Not so much.

Even if you want to argue that Sullivan has influenced certain aspects of roster construction (like a heavy focus on defense-first bottom-six forwards), that doesn’t ultimately fall on his shoulders.

Everyone’s ready to assign blame to one party, whether that be Hextall, Dubas, Sullivan or the players. The reality is that it’s a combination of everything.

It’s inarguable that the Penguins’ roster construction has been mediocre at best over the last two seasons. That doesn’t absolve Sullivan from the job he’s done behind the bench — and that goes back to the seasons that ended in first-round exits for no fatal flaw of his own.

Forget the insanity of the Jack Johnson saga. Forget the highly-questionable deployment of Jeff Carter and Brian Dumoulin last season. Forget your past Sullivan gripes. Let’s talk about right now for a moment.

The Penguins, in what felt like their zillionth must-win game of the season on Tuesday night against the Islanders, clawed back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to force overtime.

They did so in spite of Graves — mired in another brutal outing — being promoted from the third defense pairing to play with Letang, as well as Carter being promoted to Malkin’s wing as Sullivan shortened his bench in the third period.

To start overtime, Sullivan inexplicably trotted out Eller and Smith (plus Letang) for the opening draw.

In a must-win game.

Three future hall-of-famers in Crosby, Malkin and Karlsson watched from the bench. None of them touched the puck during overtime. Crosby was the only one among them to even hit the ice.

Eller ended up getting caught out on the ice for a lengthy shift and was forced to make a dicey change as the Islanders regrouped in the neutral zone. Let’s just say he didn’t exactly bust his tail to get off, which left Bryan Rust scrambling to get in the play from the bench and prevent Adam Pelech from burning through the neutral zone completely uncontested.

Pelech did just that, flying into the Penguins’ zone and ripping a shot past Alex Nedeljkovic to win the game and all but kill their opponent’s postseason outlook.

Now, I will say this: Crosby and Letang exhibited some of the worst flat-footed gap control you’ll ever see on that goal against. It was their “fault,” just as much as it was Eller or Nedeljkovic’s fault.

But, wow. The decision to start Eller and Smith in overtime was a galaxy-brained decision from Sullivan if I’ve ever seen one.

Long gone are the days of Crosby and Malkin dominating in overtime. Still, what are we doing here?

Over the last three seasons, Eller has been outscored 5-2 and outshot 25-8 while he’s on the ice for 3-on-3 action. Twenty-five. To eight.

Both Crosby and Malkin have been outscored by a pair of goals at 3-on-3 over the last three seasons, but at least they’ve been above water in terms of chances.

I don’t care how great of a game Eller (or Smith, for that matter) played in regulation. Sending him out for the opening draw of overtime was ludicrous.

Sending Eller out for the opening draw of overtime with your season on the line is a fireable offense.

And you know what? Circumstances be damned, going what will soon be six seasons without so much as a postseason series victory — while an all-time great wastes away — is a fireable offense.

Ironically, the only other professional sports franchise that I can think of that would have this extreme level of tolerance for no success happens to be the Steelers.

Guess it runs in the city.

Sullivan is a good coach. He’s the best coach in Penguins history. I reckon he wouldn’t be out of a job long if he were to be let go, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take a team like the Devils or Maple Leafs over the hump.

But he shouldn’t be back as head coach of the Penguins next season.

When Dubas was hired, he promised to bet on the Penguins’ core. Meaning he intended to build a team with prospects of maybe not winning the Stanley Cup, but at least making some noise. And then he went out and acquired a $10 million annual cap hit that runs for another three seasons to back up his promise.

Yet, here we are.

Contrary to what’s flying around amongst fans, Sullivan has made changes. He’s made subtle tactical tweaks, he’s toyed around with numerous line combinations (although I’ve hardly felt that he’s optimized them).

None of it has worked. Not nearly enough, anyway.

Something’s gotta give. There’s a new regime in the front office. The roster has seen immense turnover.

The Sullivan lever is the only one left to pull.

The time to pull it was months ago. This season’s already cooked now, which is why I’m not calling for immediate dismissal of Sullivan — even though it’s justified and even though I wouldn’t have a problem if it happened today.

Whether or not it’s the right call, I suspect Dubas will try to tinker in the offseason and gear back up for another shot at being competitive in 2024-25.

Sullivan shouldn’t be back for it.

Again, I truly believe Sullivan is a good coach. But I also believe coaches — especially in hockey — have expiration dates, and he’s in his ninth season with the Penguins.

It doesn’t matter if Crosby and co. love playing for him. Sullivan’s message, as great as it may be, and execution has gone stale.

Does anyone really believe Sullivan will coach the Penguins through an indefinite rebuild, then back to glory whenever they’re ready to compete again? If so, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

If not, it’s obvious what must happen.