Prospect Mikhail Ilyin flying up the ranks with impressive KHL season

Mikhail Ilyin — Photo via Severstal Cherepovets

I’m guessing an overwhelming majority of Penguins fans don’t know who Mikhail Ilyin is. That should change.

Ilyin, a 6-foot, 180-pound forward, was selected by the Penguins in the fifth round (pick No. 142) of the 2023 NHL Draft as part of Kyle Dubas’ inaugural draft class.

Nick Pryor, the Penguins’ director of amateur scouting, said in June that Dubas told the scouting department to “swing for home runs” at the draft. Relative to draft slot, the Ilyin pick isn’t just looking like a home run — it’s looking like a grand slam.

Drafting Ilyin might not have seemed like a power swing at the time. During the 2022-23 season, he went without a goal and recorded two assists in 21 games with the KHL’s Severstal Cherepovets. That production is abysmal on the surface, but it’s quite impressive for a then-17-year-old to have a role hammered down in one of the best men’s leagues in the world.

Prior to his 21 games in the KHL last season, Ilyin played 28 games with Almaz Cherepovets of the MHL — Russia’s top junior league. More on that in a moment.

This season, Ilyin has nine goals and 15 assists through 54 games with Severstal. Some perspective: There have been 91 instances of an 18-year-old playing at least 20 games during a KHL season. Ilyin’s current points-per-game average of 0.453 ranks seventh among that group:

Data via QuantHockey

Ilyin’s production on a per-game basis even ranks ahead of Coyotes prospect Daniil But (0.386), who was selected with the 12th pick in the same draft as Ilyin.

Does that suddenly make Ilyin — who had long-shot odds of eventually establishing himself as an NHLer at the time he was drafted — a better prospect than But? I think that’d be a reach right now.

Nevertheless, Ilyin’s stock is soaring — so much so that he now has one of the highest chances to establish an NHL career among forwards from his draft class, per statistician Chace McCallum of EP Rinkside.

McCallum’s model estimates the probability of several future outcomes for prospects: First-line caliber, middle-six caliber, depth and bust. The model currently projects Ilyin as middle-six caliber with a thin chance of becoming first-line caliber. His thin chance of becoming first-line caliber is greater than his chance of becoming a bust:

Chart via Chace McCallum (@CMHockey66)

How ‘bout them apples?

Of course, the model isn’t infallible. There’s a layered discussion to be had about its projection for Ilyin.