Penguins mailbag: Realistic expectations for Puljujarvi, dissecting Guentzel situation, Reirden's fate

Jesse Puljujarvi — Photo via Penguins

Wishing each of you the best of weekends with another Penguins mailbag for your reading pleasure.

Thanks again to those who submitted questions over on Twitter. Don’t hesitate to shoot me an email or direct message me if you’d like your question(s) answered and don’t feel like tweeting me.

Here. We. Go …

TheMattDrzik — What do you see as a reasonable ceiling for Jesse Puljujarvi?

I’ve been pleasantly surprised with Puljujarvi through two games with the Penguins. His first handful of games down in the AHL with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton were pretty rough, but he found his footing quickly and it became apparent he’d get a shot with the big club sooner than later.

Many Penguins fans are hopeful that he’ll provide some semblance of an offensive pulse down the stretch. I’m not sure it’d be all that fair to expect much more than six-ish goals and 14-ish points throughout the final 34 games of the season.

Could he exceed those totals? Sure he could. But the points will likely be tough to come by with Lars Eller as his center and whatever the heck Rickard Rakell has become on the opposite flank. Let’s also not forget that he’s been a poor finisher at the NHL level and doesn’t possess above-average passing ability.

The value Puljujarvi provides will come from his style of play. As I’ve written before, the Penguins’ forward depth consists of a lot of vanilla, and his game is anything but. He has a strong work ethic that translates to high intensity — showing up in his forechecking and defensive work.

So far, Puljujarvi’s played only ~20 minutes at 5-on-5, but the Penguins’ results in that time have been solid (data via Evolving-Hockey):

• 2 goals for

• 0 goals against

• +5 shots-on-goal differential

• +9 shot-attempts differential

• 55.6% expected goals share

I’d expect him to continue to have a positive influence on the Penguins’ ability to control play moving forward, even if it’s destined to level out to what would be classified as low-event hockey.

somebeersilike — Despite your belief trading Jake Guentzel is a bad move, if they do move him what would the goal be in return?

In just about every ordinary circumstance, I wouldn’t consider trading Guentzel prior to this season’s trade deadline as a “bad move.” The Penguins’ circumstances aren’t anything close to ordinary, though.

Sidney Crosby is 36 years old and enjoying another prolific offensive season. A $10 million annual cap hit (that runs for another three seasons) in Erik Karlsson was acquired last offseason. Kyle Dubas committed to going for another Stanley Cup with this core. Turning back now — only 48 games into that plan — would be … well, what exactly would it accomplish?

“It would accelerate the rebuild!” Oh, please. A handful of lottery tickets (draft picks, prospects) that, at best, project as good-not-great players aren’t sparking any sort of rebuild.

Do I think the Penguins, as constructed, are equipped to make a run? I don’t. But this is the last shot of the Crosby era to do so.

Looking ahead to the 2024-25 postseason, Evgeni Malkin will be pushing 39 and Kris Letang will be pushing 38. Do you see them being two of the best players on a Cup-winner at that point? Didn’t think so.

So why not try right now?

Everyone knows I’m not exactly bullish on this group. But the reality is that the Penguins still have Crosby chugging along, they have one of the league’s top goaltending tandems, and the majority of the Eastern Conference is comprised of a bunch of mid. Making the playoffs will be a challenge. If they get in? Who knows what could happen.

What I do know is that watching Crosby in the postseason — perhaps for the final time — trumps the idea of obtaining some future middle-six wingers.

I realize I’ve dodged the question a bit, but I genuinely don’t know what the goal would be if they decide to deal Guentzel. A package of futures assets won’t help avoid the impending downswing, and I don’t see the point in trying to gear back up for a run next season.